Hi Mickey: A simpler explanation: Fraud in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philly, and Altanta can let the Democrats steal the Presidential election. It doesn't let them steal House seats, because all the House seats in those areas are already Dem. It let them steal one Senate seat (MI, James), and throw two to runoffs (GA). McSally got fewer votes than Trump, so "Republicans don't like Trump" doesn't seem a winning argument
That sounds plausible. I will await the data nerds' confirmation. There is an interesting Stanford article from 2015 that posits that "Mail Voting Can Decrease Ballot Roll-Off", however. http://stanford.edu/~wpmarble/docs/rolloff_feb_2016.pdf
Seems like they're combining two very different scenarios:
1) roll-off, where voters skip some down-ticket items that they don't care about. They say more than 10% of voters do that. Well, I do that, in every election. Bond measures I don't recognize, judges.
2) voters who voted for Joe Biden and nothing else. How common is that? No idea. I don't believe for a minute that a lot of voters do that, in any election. I never have come anywhere close to doing it. If it's true that it happens a lot, I'd like to see evidence.
I go for the simples argument possible: Trump + Covid = Biden presidency. Trump - Covid = Trump presidency. Voters blame the guy in charge when things go wrong and massive unemployment, upheaval, etc. meant Trump had a huge hole to climb out of. But while voters blamed Trump for the problems with the virus they did not hold it against Republicans in general.
That sounds right. I've been thinking that Covid will see incumbents fall in the majority of (free and fair) elections held over the next two years. I think every government will look incompetent to its citizens (who will all think somewhere else got it right, not realising that there is much dissatisfaction everywhere). OTOH, not being in the USA, I don't know about "not hold[ing] it against Republicans in general." That doesn't seem quite right to me.
Election fraud. Jesus. Is there even any question?
Hi Mickey: A simpler explanation: Fraud in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philly, and Altanta can let the Democrats steal the Presidential election. It doesn't let them steal House seats, because all the House seats in those areas are already Dem. It let them steal one Senate seat (MI, James), and throw two to runoffs (GA). McSally got fewer votes than Trump, so "Republicans don't like Trump" doesn't seem a winning argument
That sounds plausible. I will await the data nerds' confirmation. There is an interesting Stanford article from 2015 that posits that "Mail Voting Can Decrease Ballot Roll-Off", however. http://stanford.edu/~wpmarble/docs/rolloff_feb_2016.pdf
Thanks. I linked to that one in the post (unless I put the wrong link in).
My apologies and I am embarrassed. I missed that on the first reading.
Seems like they're combining two very different scenarios:
1) roll-off, where voters skip some down-ticket items that they don't care about. They say more than 10% of voters do that. Well, I do that, in every election. Bond measures I don't recognize, judges.
2) voters who voted for Joe Biden and nothing else. How common is that? No idea. I don't believe for a minute that a lot of voters do that, in any election. I never have come anywhere close to doing it. If it's true that it happens a lot, I'd like to see evidence.
Fraud
I go for the simples argument possible: Trump + Covid = Biden presidency. Trump - Covid = Trump presidency. Voters blame the guy in charge when things go wrong and massive unemployment, upheaval, etc. meant Trump had a huge hole to climb out of. But while voters blamed Trump for the problems with the virus they did not hold it against Republicans in general.
That sounds right. I've been thinking that Covid will see incumbents fall in the majority of (free and fair) elections held over the next two years. I think every government will look incompetent to its citizens (who will all think somewhere else got it right, not realising that there is much dissatisfaction everywhere). OTOH, not being in the USA, I don't know about "not hold[ing] it against Republicans in general." That doesn't seem quite right to me.