Klain in Vain

#43: Did Biden's chief of staff make a fateful blunder?

There’s a remote—but increasingly less remote— possibility that Dems will wind up with neither of their two big spending bills: 1) the bipartisan “BIF” hard infrastructure (bridges, roads, etc.) bill and 2) the partisan Dem social spending laundry list, aka “Build Back Better” (BBB).

Why would that happen? Because Terry McAuliffe’s upset loss in Virginia could freak out vulnerable Dems, who then bail from the second, BBB bill — the way an Eric Cantor loss in Virginia freaked Congress out about “comprehensive immigration reform” and sank that legislation in 2014. But if BBB dies … well, since many progressives only support the bipartisan “hard” infrastructure bill if it’s twinned with BBB, it’s possible enough of them might vote against the bipartisan bill to sink it too. (It would only take 4 or 5, out of a “Progressive Caucus” of 94 members, to do that.) Biden’s agenda dies in a Tarantino gunfight.

Still an unlikely scenario, as it’s always been almost inconceivable that the Democrats would screw things up so badly they’d end up passing nothing. But this achievement is now within reach, and if it happens, it looks like there will be an obvious fall guy: Ron Klain, President Biden’s chief of staff.

In an extraordinary story last week, Politico reported how Klain, a few days before the Virginia election, decided to side with progressives (led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal) who wanted to vote against Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s attempt to hurriedly pass the bipartisan bill and give Biden at least one win before the Virginia vote.

Pelosi’s plan would have required pressuring Jayapal’s Progs, of course, but House leaders say this was possible—and why would Pelosi make the attempt if she didn’t think it was possible? The idea was that Biden would travel to Capitol HIll and ask for the progressives’ votes personally. Instead, what happened was Jayapal called Klain, who apparently believed her when she said her faction was strong enough to block the bill. Biden went to the Hill, talked about the bill, but he didn’t ask for the votes to pass it — and the rest of the White House didn’t apply much lobbying pressure either.

Most amazingly, it looks from the Politico piece like Pelosi was blindsided:

The top three Democrats knew they were within striking distance of passing the bill that morning and were left dumbfounded by the lack of a direct ask from Biden

When Biden didn’t ask, Pelosi was forced to desperately try to fill in, saying, falsely, “The President has asked for our vote today.” But, recounts Politico, Jayapal’s progressives “dug in against the infrastructure vote that the speaker wanted to tee up—using the president’s lack of a request for cover.” Biden “did not ask for a vote on [infrastructure] today, ” Jayapal told reporters afterward. “The speaker did, but he did not.” Biden flew off to Europe and the planned vote was soon cancelled, for the second time in a month.

If Biden wasn’t going to get the bill passed — and wasn’t even going to ask —why send him to Capitol Hill at all? Embarrassing.

Klain’s decision had a bonus effect — pissing off crucial tie-breaking senator Joe Manchin, whose alleged support for “Build Back Better” had been advertised by the White House. Manchin soon held a press conference pointedly denying he’d ever signed off on the BBB’s framework. “It was very easy ask just vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill,” Manchin complained. But it hadn’t happened. Manchin also made it clear he was in no hurry to reach a deal on BBB— a stance that will hardly reassure the progressives who insist on BBB as the price of their votes for the bipartisan “hard” bill, but that moderate House Democrats, alarmed by the rejection of McAuliffe and the GOP;s Virginia sweep, may now find congenial.

Maybe there’s another side to this story — Politico seemed to be a vehicle for the House leadership’s gripes against Klain. On the other hand, they registered those gripes right after the event—when memories were fresh. They didn’t wait to point fingers until a full disaster struck, in the form of the potentially devastating Virginia loss (which of course, everyone including Klain knew was possible all along).

If Biden now doesn’t get even the bipartisan“BIF”-bird-in-the-hand, Klain’s 10/29 decision could take its place alongside Jared Kushner’s 2017 advice that Democrats would love it if Trump fired FBI director James Comey —as a display of awful judgment that changed the course of a young presidency. Maybe Biden can sue Klain for what seems a clear case of staff malpractice.

Especially if it turns out that Biden made the fateful decision himself.

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