I mostly agree with Mickey here - the Cheney drama has made clear that Rep leadership wants a 2022 to be a referendum on Biden over-reach and Dem divisions (How Green a New Deal, M4A, court-packing, DC statehood, whatev.)
Conversely, Dems know that whatever their internal divisions they energetically unite in opposition to Trump.
HOWEVER! Just to be contrary, suppose the Reps manage a bit of ju-jitsu and make 2022 an election about Trumpism minus Trump? The message but not the man will be on the ballot. Tough on China and border security will still play.
If I were a Rep strategerist I'd stay worried because I don't think Trump has the discipline to let go of "Stop The Steal". But I'm NOT a Rep strategerist! Instead, I'm staying worried because a forward-looking Trump, however unlikely, might actually bring out Rep voters, help whatever's left of the party, and re-empower himself for 2024.
Republicans gained seats in the House in 2020, while losing seats in the Senate. Plus, Republicans did well in state legislatures. In Texas, Democrats said nothing short of taking the state house should be expected, and that did not occur. In fact, I’d say Democrats in Texas considered the outcome as a real problem.
Trump was on the ballot, and the results were a mixed bag. Yes, Biden won but there is NO DOUBT Republicans have a lot to work with in 2022.
To paraphrase Sam Ervin, “I’m just a country professor, but…” it seems to me much of the future influence of Trump depends on if the media remains obsessed with him. Okey dokey, a bazillion people followed Trump on Twitter, how many actual read his tripe? But the media made every Tweet the lead story and topic for endless cable news banter (see George Lakoff’s diatribes). The wing nut base frequently influences primaries (both right and left) so this is always part off the mix. But Trump is the bone the Dems and the ,media can’t let go of.
Are we having fun yet? (as Zippy the Pinhead frequently asked)
There will be a backlash against some Biden/Harris/Democrat policies, particularly on the border and lax on crime, but I expect Roe v Wade to be reversed 4 months before the election. This will drive suburban white women more firmly to the Democrats than they were in the 2020 election and will negate most normal Republican Midterm gains. I expect House R+7, Senate D+2 in 2022.
Not sure if you missed it, but the strategy is to pump up base turnout while suppressing Democratic votes. You got the first part of it but forgot the second. That's not delusional, just evil
Well, I must admit Mickey I do hope you are correct about how it will turn out in 2022 with Trump mixing it up big time. Then it is still a long time to November 2022 with a ton of unexpected things that can happen like the Rumsfeldian unknown, unknowns always lurking in the wings. I imagine abortion rights will be a big one as a national issue thanks to the Supremes. I can only hope they strike down Roe v. Wade as that seems to me to be in the long-term best interest of the country and I might add best for those left of center as well although most probably don't think so that is the case. To be transparent I am a pro-choice (say a reasonable first trimester unlimited and second trimester for some "good" reasons) but personally anti-abortion person myself. I also do hope one day we can have a high-tech border wall with Mexico (drones, robots, electronic monitoring, plenty of real people to staff the system, etc.), good holding systems for those "caught" in our super tech border wall system with robust help to those in Central America to help them want to stay in their countries that would make you and people like you very happy.
I mostly agree with Mickey here - the Cheney drama has made clear that Rep leadership wants a 2022 to be a referendum on Biden over-reach and Dem divisions (How Green a New Deal, M4A, court-packing, DC statehood, whatev.)
Conversely, Dems know that whatever their internal divisions they energetically unite in opposition to Trump.
HOWEVER! Just to be contrary, suppose the Reps manage a bit of ju-jitsu and make 2022 an election about Trumpism minus Trump? The message but not the man will be on the ballot. Tough on China and border security will still play.
If I were a Rep strategerist I'd stay worried because I don't think Trump has the discipline to let go of "Stop The Steal". But I'm NOT a Rep strategerist! Instead, I'm staying worried because a forward-looking Trump, however unlikely, might actually bring out Rep voters, help whatever's left of the party, and re-empower himself for 2024.
Republicans gained seats in the House in 2020, while losing seats in the Senate. Plus, Republicans did well in state legislatures. In Texas, Democrats said nothing short of taking the state house should be expected, and that did not occur. In fact, I’d say Democrats in Texas considered the outcome as a real problem.
Trump was on the ballot, and the results were a mixed bag. Yes, Biden won but there is NO DOUBT Republicans have a lot to work with in 2022.
To paraphrase Sam Ervin, “I’m just a country professor, but…” it seems to me much of the future influence of Trump depends on if the media remains obsessed with him. Okey dokey, a bazillion people followed Trump on Twitter, how many actual read his tripe? But the media made every Tweet the lead story and topic for endless cable news banter (see George Lakoff’s diatribes). The wing nut base frequently influences primaries (both right and left) so this is always part off the mix. But Trump is the bone the Dems and the ,media can’t let go of.
Are we having fun yet? (as Zippy the Pinhead frequently asked)
There will be a backlash against some Biden/Harris/Democrat policies, particularly on the border and lax on crime, but I expect Roe v Wade to be reversed 4 months before the election. This will drive suburban white women more firmly to the Democrats than they were in the 2020 election and will negate most normal Republican Midterm gains. I expect House R+7, Senate D+2 in 2022.
Not sure if you missed it, but the strategy is to pump up base turnout while suppressing Democratic votes. You got the first part of it but forgot the second. That's not delusional, just evil
I don't think 2022 will be about Trump. It may be about Trump's legacy, though - if Roe v Wade is reversed 4 months before the election.
Well, I must admit Mickey I do hope you are correct about how it will turn out in 2022 with Trump mixing it up big time. Then it is still a long time to November 2022 with a ton of unexpected things that can happen like the Rumsfeldian unknown, unknowns always lurking in the wings. I imagine abortion rights will be a big one as a national issue thanks to the Supremes. I can only hope they strike down Roe v. Wade as that seems to me to be in the long-term best interest of the country and I might add best for those left of center as well although most probably don't think so that is the case. To be transparent I am a pro-choice (say a reasonable first trimester unlimited and second trimester for some "good" reasons) but personally anti-abortion person myself. I also do hope one day we can have a high-tech border wall with Mexico (drones, robots, electronic monitoring, plenty of real people to staff the system, etc.), good holding systems for those "caught" in our super tech border wall system with robust help to those in Central America to help them want to stay in their countries that would make you and people like you very happy.